NFL Playoff Odds 2026: We Simulated the Rest of the Season 10,000 Times
Odds entering Week 8 · results through Monday, October 26 · 107 games played, 165 to go. New odds every Tuesday.
Super Bowl favorites
AFC
| Team | Playoffs | Win SB | Proj. W | Win Div. | #1 Seed | Win Conf. | Wk Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs 5-1 · AFC West | 97.0% | 16.1% | 12.2 | 80.9% | 36.8% | 30.8% | -2.5 |
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-2 · AFC South | 94.1% | 9.7% | 11.3 | 91.0% | 12.7% | 19.5% | +2.4 |
Buffalo Bills 5-1 · AFC East | 90.2% | 6.4% | 11.4 | 69.8% | 19.0% | 15.0% | +0.9 |
Cincinnati Bengals 4-2 · AFC North | 89.2% | 7.1% | 11.4 | 57.3% | 16.5% | 15.5% | +31.6 |
Denver Broncos 5-2 · AFC West | 74.6% | 1.9% | 10.5 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | +25.5 |
Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2 · AFC North | 68.8% | 1.7% | 10.4 | 23.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | +17.5 |
New England Patriots 4-3 · AFC East | 67.2% | 2.0% | 9.7 | 28.7% | 3.0% | 5.1% | -10.6 |
Cleveland Browns 5-2 · AFC North | 42.9% | 0.3% | 9.2 | 11.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | +12.8 |
Baltimore Ravens 4-3 · AFC North | 40.1% | 0.8% | 9.2 | 7.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | -36.9 |
Houston Texans 2-5 · AFC South | 13.6% | 0.3% | 7.5 | 6.6% | 0.0% | 0.7% | -10.9 |
Las Vegas Raiders 3-4 · AFC West | 12.6% | 0.1% | 7.7 | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | -18.4 |
New York Jets 2-5 · AFC East | 6.1% | 0.0% | 6.7 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -8.8 |
Indianapolis Colts 2-5 · AFC South | 3.6% | 0.0% | 6.5 | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -2.6 |
Miami Dolphins 1-5 · AFC East | 0.1% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
Los Angeles Chargers 0-6 · AFC West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
Tennessee Titans 1-6 · AFC South | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
NFC
| Team | Playoffs | Win SB | Proj. W | Win Div. | #1 Seed | Win Conf. | Wk Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco 49ers 6-1 · NFC West | 98.8% | 20.8% | 12.9 | 89.9% | 42.9% | 35.0% | -1.1 |
Minnesota Vikings 6-0 · NFC North | 98.7% | 16.0% | 13.0 | 74.8% | 44.9% | 29.0% | +0.6 |
Chicago Bears 5-2 · NFC North | 77.5% | 4.1% | 10.8 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 8.1% | -1.7 |
Detroit Lions 4-2 · NFC North | 73.8% | 3.8% | 10.5 | 13.2% | 5.1% | 7.6% | -3.0 |
Seattle Seahawks 4-3 · NFC West | 68.9% | 3.7% | 10.2 | 9.1% | 1.8% | 7.0% | +18.2 |
New York Giants 4-2-1 · NFC East | 65.4% | 1.2% | 8.9 | 60.4% | 0.7% | 3.3% | +7.6 |
Carolina Panthers 3-3 · NFC South | 44.0% | 0.6% | 8.2 | 41.7% | 0.1% | 1.7% | -47.1 |
Dallas Cowboys 3-4 · NFC East | 41.9% | 0.9% | 8.7 | 36.2% | 0.2% | 2.4% | +12.6 |
Green Bay Packers 4-3 · NFC North | 37.9% | 0.7% | 9.1 | 1.6% | 0.4% | 1.7% | -20.2 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-5 · NFC South | 29.3% | 0.6% | 7.3 | 27.6% | 0.0% | 1.4% | +26.0 |
Atlanta Falcons 3-4 · NFC South | 28.3% | 0.4% | 7.5 | 25.8% | 0.0% | 1.1% | +18.6 |
Los Angeles Rams 3-4 · NFC West | 26.5% | 0.7% | 8.5 | 1.0% | 0.1% | 1.4% | +8.6 |
New Orleans Saints 2-5 · NFC South | 5.1% | 0.1% | 5.8 | 4.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.9 |
Philadelphia Eagles 2-5 · NFC East | 2.3% | 0.0% | 5.9 | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -15.8 |
Washington Commanders 1-4-1 · NFC East | 1.5% | 0.0% | 4.8 | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.8 |
Arizona Cardinals 2-5 · NFC West | 0.1% | 0.0% | 4.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.6 |
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Take Over a Team — It's FreeHow these odds work
Every week we take the real 2026 standings and the remaining schedule, then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Each percentage is the share of those simulated seasons in which a team reached that milestone. Projected wins are the average final win total across all of them.
- Team strength starts from BS Football's player ratings for each team's healthy starters, using the current NFL rosters and injury report that power the game. Injured players return as their injuries run out.
- Real results count more as the season goes on. Each team's rating is blended with its actual point differential per game; by midseason the results carry most of the weight.
- Home field is worth about two points. International and other neutral-site games get none.
- Playoffs follow the NFL format: four division winners and three wild cards per conference, a bye for each #1 seed, and reseeding after the wild-card round.
- Tiebreakers are simplified: win percentage, then head-to-head, division record (for division rivals), conference record, then a coin flip. The NFL's full procedure has more steps, so very close races can differ slightly.
Results and schedule come from public NFL data; ratings come from BS Football. These are simulations for fun, not betting advice.
Frequently asked questions
How often are the odds updated?
Every Tuesday morning, after Monday Night Football, using the latest rosters and injury report in the game.
Why do my team's odds differ from other sites?
Every model rates teams differently. Ours starts from BS Football's player ratings and leans more on real results as the season goes on. Other sites use betting markets, Elo, or play-by-play efficiency.
Can I simulate the season myself?
Yes. In BS Football you can take over any team with its current roster, make trades and signings, and sim or play out the rest of the season. Start a league.
BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.