Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Bills (7-1) make the playoffs in 99.9% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, up 1.6 points from last week. They win the AFC East 97.6% of the time and the Super Bowl 13.8%, and finish with 13.4 wins on average. That's the 1st-best playoff outlook in the AFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
AFC East race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 13.4 | 97.6% | 99.9% | 13.8% |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 9.0 | 2.4% | 53.1% | 0.2% |
| New York Jets | 2-7 | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-7 | 3.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Bills remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Bills about 6.4 more wins in their last 9 games. Toughest: at Packers in Week 14 (54.7%). Most winnable: vs Dolphins in Week 11 (92.2%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Houston Texans | Sep 13 | W 36-31 |
| 2 | vs Detroit Lions | Sep 17 | W 41-31 |
| 3 | vs Los Angeles Chargers | Sep 27 | W 24-16 |
| 4 | vs New England Patriots | Oct 4 | L 26-29 |
| 5 | @ Los Angeles Rams | Oct 12 | W 37-34 |
| 6 | @ Las Vegas Raiders | Oct 18 | W 33-30 |
| 8 | vs Baltimore Ravens | Nov 1 | W 36-10 |
| 9 | @ Minnesota Vikings | Nov 9 | W 23-6 |
| 10 | @ New York Jets | Nov 15 | 76.2% |
| 11 | vs Miami Dolphins | Nov 22 | 92.2% |
| 12 | vs Kansas City Chiefs | Nov 26 | 61.1% |
| 13 | @ New England Patriots | Dec 6 | 65.1% |
| 14 | @ Green Bay Packers | Dec 13 | 54.7% |
| 15 | vs Chicago Bears | Dec 19 | 62.5% |
| 16 | @ Denver Broncos | Dec 25 | 57.7% |
| 17 | @ Miami Dolphins | Jan 3 | 84.2% |
| 18 | vs New York Jets | Jan 10 | 86.9% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.