Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Dolphins (1-7) make the playoffs in 0.0% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season. They win the AFC East 0.0% of the time and the Super Bowl 0.0%, and finish with 3.4 wins on average. That's the 15th-best playoff outlook in the AFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
AFC East race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 13.4 | 97.6% | 99.9% | 13.8% |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 9.0 | 2.4% | 53.1% | 0.2% |
| New York Jets | 2-7 | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-7 | 3.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Dolphins remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Dolphins about 2.3 more wins in their last 9 games. Toughest: at Bills in Week 11 (7.8%). Most winnable: vs Chargers in Week 16 (66.0%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Las Vegas Raiders | Sep 13 | L 13-27 |
| 2 | @ San Francisco 49ers | Sep 20 | L 13-35 |
| 3 | vs Kansas City Chiefs | Sep 27 | L 10-24 |
| 4 | @ Minnesota Vikings | Oct 4 | L 10-15 |
| 5 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | Oct 11 | L 24-31 |
| 7 | @ New York Jets | Oct 25 | W 28-25 |
| 8 | vs New England Patriots | Nov 1 | L 19-24 |
| 9 | vs Detroit Lions | Nov 8 | L 9-19 |
| 10 | @ Indianapolis Colts | Nov 15 | 33.3% |
| 11 | @ Buffalo Bills | Nov 22 | 7.8% |
| 12 | vs New York Jets | Nov 29 | 45.4% |
| 13 | @ Denver Broncos | Dec 6 | 14.6% |
| 14 | vs Chicago Bears | Dec 13 | 17.3% |
| 15 | @ Green Bay Packers | Dec 20 | 13.7% |
| 16 | vs Los Angeles Chargers | Dec 27 | 66.0% |
| 17 | vs Buffalo Bills | Jan 3 | 15.8% |
| 18 | @ New England Patriots | Jan 10 | 19.6% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
Think the Dolphins deserve better odds?
Take over the Dolphins at Week 10 with their real roster and run the rest of the season yourself. Free, in your browser.
Take Over the Dolphins →More on the Dolphins
- Miami Dolphins 2027 mock draft: every pick, team needs and the prospects in range
- Miami Dolphins 2026 roster, with BS Football ratings
- Playoff odds for all 32 teams, and how the model works
Playoff chances for every team
AFC
Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.