Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Falcons (3-6) make the playoffs in 8.1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, down 5.0 points from last week. They win the NFC South 7.9% of the time and the Super Bowl 0.0%, and finish with 6.1 wins on average. That's the 13th-best playoff outlook in the NFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
NFC South race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 7.9 | 59.7% | 59.8% | 1.3% |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | 6.9 | 20.3% | 20.7% | 0.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 6.5 | 12.1% | 12.2% | 0.1% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 6.1 | 7.9% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
Falcons remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Falcons about 3.1 more wins in their last 8 games. Toughest: at Vikings in Week 12 (23.3%). Most winnable: vs Saints in Week 17 (58.4%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Sep 13 | L 13-20 |
| 2 | vs Carolina Panthers | Sep 20 | L 3-34 |
| 3 | @ Green Bay Packers | Sep 24 | W 35-14 |
| 4 | @ New Orleans Saints | Oct 5 | W 45-24 |
| 5 | vs Baltimore Ravens | Oct 11 | L 23-30 |
| 6 | vs Chicago Bears | Oct 18 | L 23-31 |
| 7 | vs San Francisco 49ers | Oct 25 | W 29-20 |
| 8 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Nov 1 | L 0-16 |
| 9 | vs Cincinnati Bengals (neutral site) | Nov 8 | L 17-34 |
| 10 | vs Kansas City Chiefs | Nov 15 | 27.2% |
| 12 | @ Minnesota Vikings | Nov 29 | 23.3% |
| 13 | vs Detroit Lions | Dec 6 | 33.7% |
| 14 | @ Cleveland Browns | Dec 13 | 41.5% |
| 15 | @ Washington Commanders | Dec 20 | 46.2% |
| 16 | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Dec 27 | 41.3% |
| 17 | vs New Orleans Saints | Jan 3 | 58.4% |
| 18 | @ Carolina Panthers | Jan 10 | 36.2% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
Think the Falcons deserve better odds?
Take over the Falcons at Week 10 with their real roster and run the rest of the season yourself. Free, in your browser.
Take Over the Falcons →More on the Falcons
- Atlanta Falcons 2027 mock draft: every pick, team needs and the prospects in range
- Atlanta Falcons 2026 roster, with BS Football ratings
- Playoff odds for all 32 teams, and how the model works
Playoff chances for every team
AFC
Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.