Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Vikings (6-2) make the playoffs in 84.0% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, down 11.9 points from last week. They win the NFC North 24.5% of the time and the Super Bowl 2.6%, and finish with 11.2 wins on average. That's the 4th-best playoff outlook in the NFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
NFC North race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 11.8 | 34.7% | 91.0% | 7.0% |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 11.4 | 32.9% | 85.8% | 4.5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 11.2 | 24.5% | 84.0% | 2.6% |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 10.4 | 7.9% | 60.4% | 1.5% |
Vikings remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Vikings about 5.2 more wins in their last 9 games. Toughest: at 49ers in Week 11 (31.5%). Most winnable: vs Commanders in Week 16 (80.3%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Green Bay Packers | Sep 13 | W 39-22 |
| 2 | @ Chicago Bears | Sep 20 | W 9-3 |
| 3 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sep 27 | W 23-16 |
| 4 | vs Miami Dolphins | Oct 4 | W 15-10 |
| 5 | @ New Orleans Saints | Oct 11 | W 23-13 |
| 7 | vs Indianapolis Colts | Oct 25 | W 16-10 |
| 8 | @ Detroit Lions | Nov 1 | L 15-19 |
| 9 | vs Buffalo Bills | Nov 9 | L 6-23 |
| 10 | @ Green Bay Packers | Nov 15 | 42.0% |
| 11 | vs San Francisco 49ers (neutral site) | Nov 22 | 31.5% |
| 12 | vs Atlanta Falcons | Nov 29 | 76.7% |
| 13 | vs Carolina Panthers | Dec 6 | 72.9% |
| 14 | @ New England Patriots | Dec 10 | 50.8% |
| 15 | vs Detroit Lions | Dec 20 | 53.0% |
| 16 | vs Washington Commanders | Dec 27 | 80.3% |
| 17 | @ New York Jets | Jan 3 | 63.8% |
| 18 | vs Chicago Bears | Jan 10 | 48.0% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
Think the Vikings deserve better odds?
Take over the Vikings at Week 10 with their real roster and run the rest of the season yourself. Free, in your browser.
Take Over the Vikings →More on the Vikings
- Minnesota Vikings 2027 mock draft: every pick, team needs and the prospects in range
- Minnesota Vikings 2026 roster, with BS Football ratings
- Playoff odds for all 32 teams, and how the model works
Playoff chances for every team
AFC
Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.