New England Patriots Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Patriots (5-4) make the playoffs in 53.1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, down 20.1 points from last week. They win the AFC East 2.4% of the time and the Super Bowl 0.2%, and finish with 9.0 wins on average. That's the 7th-best playoff outlook in the AFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
AFC East race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 13.4 | 97.6% | 99.9% | 13.8% |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 9.0 | 2.4% | 53.1% | 0.2% |
| New York Jets | 2-7 | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-7 | 3.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Patriots remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Patriots about 4.0 more wins in their last 8 games. Toughest: at Chiefs in Week 15 (21.7%). Most winnable: vs Dolphins in Week 18 (80.4%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Seattle Seahawks | Sep 9 | L 10-13 |
| 2 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | Sep 20 | W 20-3 |
| 3 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Sep 27 | L 6-35 |
| 4 | @ Buffalo Bills | Oct 4 | W 29-26 |
| 5 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | Oct 11 | W 45-17 |
| 6 | vs New York Jets | Oct 18 | W 26-19 |
| 7 | @ Chicago Bears | Oct 22 | L 24-30 |
| 8 | @ Miami Dolphins | Nov 1 | W 24-19 |
| 9 | vs Green Bay Packers | Nov 8 | L 27-45 |
| 10 | vs Detroit Lions (neutral site) | Nov 15 | 37.3% |
| 12 | @ Los Angeles Chargers | Nov 29 | 72.8% |
| 13 | vs Buffalo Bills | Dec 6 | 34.9% |
| 14 | vs Minnesota Vikings | Dec 10 | 49.2% |
| 15 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | Dec 21 | 21.7% |
| 16 | @ New York Jets | Dec 27 | 54.3% |
| 17 | vs Denver Broncos | Jan 3 | 51.2% |
| 18 | vs Miami Dolphins | Jan 10 | 80.4% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.