Green Bay Packers Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Packers (6-3) make the playoffs in 60.4% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, up 16.2 points from last week. They win the NFC North 7.9% of the time and the Super Bowl 1.5%, and finish with 10.4 wins on average. That's the 6th-best playoff outlook in the NFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
NFC North race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 11.8 | 34.7% | 91.0% | 7.0% |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 11.4 | 32.9% | 85.8% | 4.5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 11.2 | 24.5% | 84.0% | 2.6% |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 10.4 | 7.9% | 60.4% | 1.5% |
Packers remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Packers about 4.3 more wins in their last 8 games. Toughest: at Bears in Week 16 (31.7%). Most winnable: vs Dolphins in Week 15 (86.3%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Minnesota Vikings | Sep 13 | L 22-39 |
| 2 | @ New York Jets | Sep 20 | W 20-17 |
| 3 | vs Atlanta Falcons | Sep 24 | L 14-35 |
| 4 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Oct 4 | W 17-14 |
| 5 | vs Chicago Bears | Oct 11 | W 31-7 |
| 6 | vs Dallas Cowboys | Oct 18 | W 23-13 |
| 7 | @ Detroit Lions | Oct 25 | L 17-20 |
| 8 | vs Carolina Panthers | Oct 29 | W 27-19 |
| 9 | @ New England Patriots | Nov 8 | W 45-27 |
| 10 | vs Minnesota Vikings | Nov 15 | 58.0% |
| 12 | @ Los Angeles Rams | Nov 25 | 35.2% |
| 13 | @ New Orleans Saints | Dec 6 | 61.8% |
| 14 | vs Buffalo Bills | Dec 13 | 45.3% |
| 15 | vs Miami Dolphins | Dec 20 | 86.3% |
| 16 | @ Chicago Bears | Dec 25 | 31.7% |
| 17 | vs Houston Texans | Jan 4 | 61.4% |
| 18 | vs Detroit Lions | Jan 10 | 54.0% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
Think the Packers deserve better odds?
Take over the Packers at Week 10 with their real roster and run the rest of the season yourself. Free, in your browser.
Take Over the Packers →More on the Packers
- Green Bay Packers 2027 mock draft: every pick, team needs and the prospects in range
- Green Bay Packers 2026 roster, with BS Football ratings
- Playoff odds for all 32 teams, and how the model works
Playoff chances for every team
AFC
Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.