Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Jaguars (6-2) make the playoffs in 99.7% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, up 0.6 points from last week. They win the AFC South 98.0% of the time and the Super Bowl 22.2%, and finish with 13.0 wins on average. That's the 2nd-best playoff outlook in the AFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
AFC South race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | 13.0 | 98.0% | 99.7% | 22.2% |
| Houston Texans | 3-5 | 8.5 | 2.0% | 26.8% | 0.3% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-7 | 4.8 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-7 | 3.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Jaguars remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Jaguars about 7.0 more wins in their last 9 games. Toughest: at Bears in Week 13 (54.0%). Most winnable: vs Titans in Week 12 (93.9%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Cleveland Browns | Sep 13 | W 34-10 |
| 2 | @ Denver Broncos | Sep 20 | L 13-20 |
| 3 | vs New England Patriots | Sep 27 | W 35-6 |
| 4 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | Oct 4 | W 22-17 |
| 5 | vs Philadelphia Eagles (neutral site) | Oct 11 | W 19-17 |
| 6 | vs Houston Texans (neutral site) | Oct 18 | L 31-34 |
| 8 | vs Indianapolis Colts | Nov 1 | W 42-7 |
| 9 | @ Baltimore Ravens | Nov 5 | W 33-10 |
| 10 | @ Tennessee Titans | Nov 15 | 88.1% |
| 11 | @ New York Giants | Nov 22 | 71.8% |
| 12 | vs Tennessee Titans | Nov 29 | 93.9% |
| 13 | @ Chicago Bears | Dec 6 | 54.0% |
| 14 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | Dec 14 | 79.2% |
| 15 | @ Houston Texans | Dec 20 | 66.1% |
| 16 | @ Dallas Cowboys | Dec 27 | 70.0% |
| 17 | vs Washington Commanders | Jan 3 | 91.5% |
| 18 | @ Indianapolis Colts | Jan 10 | 85.1% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.