Washington Commanders Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Commanders (2-5-1) make the playoffs in 1.4% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, down 3.2 points from last week. They win the NFC East 1.3% of the time and the Super Bowl 0.0%, and finish with 5.1 wins on average. That's the 14th-best playoff outlook in the NFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
NFC East race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 5-2-1 | 9.4 | 80.5% | 81.7% | 1.0% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4-5 | 8.1 | 18.0% | 20.5% | 0.2% |
| Washington Commanders | 2-5-1 | 5.1 | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-7 | 4.6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Commanders remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Commanders about 3.1 more wins in their last 9 games. Toughest: at Jaguars in Week 17 (8.5%). Most winnable: vs Falcons in Week 15 (53.8%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | Sep 13 | L 22-24 |
| 2 | @ Dallas Cowboys | Sep 20 | L 20-37 |
| 3 | vs Seattle Seahawks | Sep 27 | W 33-31 |
| 4 | vs Indianapolis Colts (neutral site) | Oct 4 | L 13-30 |
| 5 | vs New York Giants | Oct 11 | T 27-27 |
| 6 | @ San Francisco 49ers | Oct 19 | L 17-23 |
| 8 | vs Philadelphia Eagles | Nov 1 | W 27-10 |
| 9 | vs Los Angeles Rams | Nov 8 | L 13-20 |
| 10 | @ New York Giants | Nov 12 | 25.5% |
| 11 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | Nov 23 | 24.8% |
| 12 | @ Arizona Cardinals | Nov 29 | 53.1% |
| 13 | @ Tennessee Titans | Dec 6 | 49.8% |
| 14 | vs Houston Texans | Dec 13 | 35.0% |
| 15 | vs Atlanta Falcons | Dec 20 | 53.8% |
| 16 | @ Minnesota Vikings | Dec 27 | 19.7% |
| 17 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Jan 3 | 8.5% |
| 18 | vs Dallas Cowboys | Jan 10 | 39.2% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Take Over the Commanders →More on the Commanders
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.