San Francisco 49ers Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the 49ers (7-1) make the playoffs in 99.5% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season. They win the NFC West 97.1% of the time and the Super Bowl 25.1%, and finish with 13.6 wins on average. That's the 1st-best playoff outlook in the NFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
NFC West race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | 13.6 | 97.1% | 99.5% | 25.1% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-4 | 9.5 | 1.6% | 35.8% | 0.9% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5-4 | 9.4 | 1.3% | 38.9% | 1.1% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-6 | 5.4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
49ers remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the 49ers about 6.6 more wins in their last 9 games. Toughest: at Chiefs in Week 16 (47.1%). Most winnable: vs Eagles in Week 17 (90.4%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Los Angeles Rams (neutral site) | Sep 10 | W 27-7 |
| 2 | vs Miami Dolphins | Sep 20 | W 35-13 |
| 3 | vs Arizona Cardinals | Sep 27 | W 36-30 |
| 4 | vs Denver Broncos | Oct 4 | W 24-14 |
| 5 | @ Seattle Seahawks | Oct 11 | W 32-29 |
| 6 | vs Washington Commanders | Oct 19 | W 23-17 |
| 7 | @ Atlanta Falcons | Oct 25 | L 20-29 |
| 9 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | Nov 8 | W 38-17 |
| 10 | @ Dallas Cowboys | Nov 15 | 66.5% |
| 11 | vs Minnesota Vikings (neutral site) | Nov 22 | 68.5% |
| 12 | vs Seattle Seahawks | Nov 29 | 74.1% |
| 13 | @ New York Giants | Dec 6 | 68.3% |
| 14 | vs Los Angeles Rams | Dec 13 | 71.8% |
| 15 | @ Los Angeles Chargers | Dec 17 | 89.5% |
| 16 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | Dec 27 | 47.1% |
| 17 | vs Philadelphia Eagles | Jan 3 | 90.4% |
| 18 | @ Arizona Cardinals | Jan 10 | 87.4% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Take Over the 49ers →More on the 49ers
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.