Houston Texans Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Texans (3-5) make the playoffs in 26.8% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, up 16.0 points from last week. They win the AFC South 2.0% of the time and the Super Bowl 0.3%, and finish with 8.5 wins on average. That's the 8th-best playoff outlook in the AFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
AFC South race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | 13.0 | 98.0% | 99.7% | 22.2% |
| Houston Texans | 3-5 | 8.5 | 2.0% | 26.8% | 0.3% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-7 | 4.8 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-7 | 3.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Texans remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Texans about 5.5 more wins in their last 9 games. Toughest: vs Jaguars in Week 15 (33.9%). Most winnable: vs Titans in Week 18 (84.5%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Buffalo Bills | Sep 13 | L 31-36 |
| 2 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | Sep 20 | L 6-20 |
| 3 | @ Indianapolis Colts | Sep 27 | L 17-19 |
| 4 | vs Dallas Cowboys | Oct 4 | L 30-34 |
| 5 | @ Tennessee Titans | Oct 11 | W 26-3 |
| 6 | vs Jacksonville Jaguars (neutral site) | Oct 18 | W 34-31 |
| 7 | vs New York Giants | Oct 25 | L 21-27 |
| 9 | @ Los Angeles Chargers | Nov 8 | W 44-22 |
| 10 | @ Cleveland Browns | Nov 15 | 60.8% |
| 11 | vs Indianapolis Colts | Nov 19 | 81.5% |
| 12 | vs Baltimore Ravens | Nov 29 | 76.2% |
| 13 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Dec 6 | 39.5% |
| 14 | @ Washington Commanders | Dec 13 | 65.0% |
| 15 | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | Dec 20 | 33.9% |
| 16 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | Dec 24 | 66.4% |
| 17 | @ Green Bay Packers | Jan 4 | 38.6% |
| 18 | vs Tennessee Titans | Jan 10 | 84.5% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.