Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Buccaneers (3-6) make the playoffs in 59.8% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, down 0.5 points from last week. They win the NFC South 59.7% of the time and the Super Bowl 1.3%, and finish with 7.9 wins on average. That's the 7th-best playoff outlook in the NFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
NFC South race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 7.9 | 59.7% | 59.8% | 1.3% |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | 6.9 | 20.3% | 20.7% | 0.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 6.5 | 12.1% | 12.2% | 0.1% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 6.1 | 7.9% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
Buccaneers remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Buccaneers about 4.9 more wins in their last 8 games. Toughest: at Lions in Week 11 (33.5%). Most winnable: vs Chargers in Week 13 (88.0%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | Sep 13 | L 27-33 |
| 2 | vs Cleveland Browns | Sep 20 | L 19-23 |
| 3 | vs Minnesota Vikings | Sep 27 | L 16-23 |
| 4 | vs Green Bay Packers | Oct 4 | L 14-17 |
| 5 | @ Dallas Cowboys | Oct 8 | W 24-16 |
| 6 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | Oct 18 | L 19-26 |
| 7 | @ Carolina Panthers | Oct 25 | W 43-13 |
| 8 | vs Atlanta Falcons | Nov 1 | W 16-0 |
| 9 | @ Chicago Bears | Nov 8 | L 24-27 |
| 11 | @ Detroit Lions | Nov 22 | 33.5% |
| 12 | vs Carolina Panthers | Nov 30 | 70.6% |
| 13 | vs Los Angeles Chargers | Dec 6 | 88.0% |
| 14 | @ Baltimore Ravens | Dec 13 | 59.5% |
| 15 | vs New Orleans Saints | Dec 20 | 74.1% |
| 16 | @ Atlanta Falcons | Dec 27 | 58.7% |
| 17 | vs Los Angeles Rams | Jan 3 | 51.2% |
| 18 | @ New Orleans Saints | Jan 10 | 58.1% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.