Las Vegas Raiders Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Raiders (4-5) make the playoffs in 14.5% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, down 9.9 points from last week. They win the AFC West 0.8% of the time and the Super Bowl 0.0%, and finish with 8.0 wins on average. That's the 10th-best playoff outlook in the AFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
AFC West race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 12.0 | 58.9% | 98.0% | 7.6% |
| Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 11.9 | 40.3% | 95.4% | 1.6% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 8.0 | 0.8% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-8 | 1.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Raiders remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Raiders about 4.0 more wins in their last 8 games. Toughest: at Chiefs in Week 18 (17.3%). Most winnable: vs Chargers in Week 14 (80.6%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Miami Dolphins | Sep 13 | W 27-13 |
| 2 | @ Los Angeles Chargers | Sep 20 | W 26-14 |
| 3 | @ New Orleans Saints | Sep 27 | W 35-27 |
| 4 | vs Kansas City Chiefs | Oct 4 | L 27-30 |
| 5 | @ New England Patriots | Oct 11 | L 17-45 |
| 6 | vs Buffalo Bills | Oct 18 | L 30-33 |
| 7 | vs Los Angeles Rams | Oct 25 | L 21-35 |
| 8 | @ New York Jets | Nov 1 | W 38-33 |
| 9 | @ San Francisco 49ers | Nov 8 | L 17-38 |
| 10 | vs Seattle Seahawks | Nov 15 | 44.0% |
| 11 | @ Denver Broncos | Nov 22 | 28.2% |
| 12 | @ Cleveland Browns | Nov 29 | 45.1% |
| 14 | vs Los Angeles Chargers | Dec 13 | 80.6% |
| 15 | vs Denver Broncos | Dec 20 | 44.1% |
| 16 | vs Tennessee Titans | Dec 27 | 74.6% |
| 17 | @ Arizona Cardinals | Jan 3 | 62.0% |
| 18 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | Jan 10 | 17.3% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Take Over the Raiders →More on the Raiders
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.