Dallas Cowboys Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Cowboys (4-5) make the playoffs in 20.5% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, down 3.5 points from last week. They win the NFC East 18.0% of the time and the Super Bowl 0.2%, and finish with 8.1 wins on average. That's the 11th-best playoff outlook in the NFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
NFC East race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 5-2-1 | 9.4 | 80.5% | 81.7% | 1.0% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4-5 | 8.1 | 18.0% | 20.5% | 0.2% |
| Washington Commanders | 2-5-1 | 5.1 | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-7 | 4.6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Cowboys remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Cowboys about 4.1 more wins in their last 8 games. Toughest: vs Jaguars in Week 16 (30.0%). Most winnable: vs Titans in Week 11 (81.6%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ New York Giants | Sep 13 | L 20-28 |
| 2 | vs Washington Commanders | Sep 20 | W 37-20 |
| 3 | vs Baltimore Ravens (neutral site) | Sep 27 | L 31-34 |
| 4 | @ Houston Texans | Oct 4 | W 34-30 |
| 5 | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Oct 8 | L 16-24 |
| 6 | @ Green Bay Packers | Oct 18 | L 13-23 |
| 7 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | Oct 26 | W 38-21 |
| 8 | vs Arizona Cardinals | Nov 1 | L 30-33 |
| 9 | @ Indianapolis Colts | Nov 8 | W 27-23 |
| 10 | vs San Francisco 49ers | Nov 15 | 33.5% |
| 11 | vs Tennessee Titans | Nov 22 | 81.6% |
| 12 | vs Philadelphia Eagles | Nov 26 | 77.4% |
| 13 | @ Seattle Seahawks | Dec 7 | 32.3% |
| 15 | @ Los Angeles Rams | Dec 20 | 30.9% |
| 16 | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | Dec 27 | 30.0% |
| 17 | vs New York Giants | Jan 3 | 61.9% |
| 18 | @ Washington Commanders | Jan 10 | 60.8% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.