Denver Broncos Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Broncos (7-2) make the playoffs in 95.4% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, up 10.1 points from last week. They win the AFC West 40.3% of the time and the Super Bowl 1.6%, and finish with 11.9 wins on average. That's the 5th-best playoff outlook in the AFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
AFC West race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 12.0 | 58.9% | 98.0% | 7.6% |
| Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 11.9 | 40.3% | 95.4% | 1.6% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 8.0 | 0.8% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-8 | 1.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Broncos remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Broncos about 4.9 more wins in their last 8 games. Toughest: at Steelers in Week 12 (39.1%). Most winnable: vs Chargers in Week 18 (88.3%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | Sep 14 | L 10-31 |
| 2 | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | Sep 20 | W 20-13 |
| 3 | vs Los Angeles Rams | Sep 27 | W 30-26 |
| 4 | @ San Francisco 49ers | Oct 4 | L 14-24 |
| 5 | @ Los Angeles Chargers | Oct 11 | W 23-17 |
| 6 | vs Seattle Seahawks | Oct 15 | W 17-14 |
| 7 | @ Arizona Cardinals | Oct 25 | W 30-16 |
| 8 | vs Kansas City Chiefs | Nov 1 | W 28-24 |
| 9 | @ Carolina Panthers | Nov 8 | W 26-21 |
| 11 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | Nov 22 | 71.8% |
| 12 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Nov 27 | 39.1% |
| 13 | vs Miami Dolphins | Dec 6 | 85.4% |
| 14 | @ New York Jets | Dec 13 | 62.0% |
| 15 | @ Las Vegas Raiders | Dec 20 | 55.9% |
| 16 | vs Buffalo Bills | Dec 25 | 42.3% |
| 17 | @ New England Patriots | Jan 3 | 48.8% |
| 18 | vs Los Angeles Chargers | Jan 10 | 88.3% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.