Detroit Lions Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Lions (6-2) make the playoffs in 85.8% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, up 3.0 points from last week. They win the NFC North 32.9% of the time and the Super Bowl 4.5%, and finish with 11.4 wins on average. That's the 3rd-best playoff outlook in the NFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
NFC North race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 11.8 | 34.7% | 91.0% | 7.0% |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 11.4 | 32.9% | 85.8% | 4.5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 11.2 | 24.5% | 84.0% | 2.6% |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 10.4 | 7.9% | 60.4% | 1.5% |
Lions remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Lions about 5.4 more wins in their last 9 games. Toughest: at Bears in Week 17 (36.2%). Most winnable: vs Titans in Week 14 (88.1%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs New Orleans Saints | Sep 13 | W 31-30 |
| 2 | @ Buffalo Bills | Sep 17 | L 31-41 |
| 3 | vs New York Jets | Sep 27 | W 31-24 |
| 4 | @ Carolina Panthers | Oct 4 | L 26-32 |
| 5 | @ Arizona Cardinals | Oct 11 | W 45-21 |
| 7 | vs Green Bay Packers | Oct 25 | W 20-17 |
| 8 | vs Minnesota Vikings | Nov 1 | W 19-15 |
| 9 | @ Miami Dolphins | Nov 8 | W 19-9 |
| 10 | vs New England Patriots (neutral site) | Nov 15 | 62.7% |
| 11 | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Nov 22 | 66.5% |
| 12 | vs Chicago Bears | Nov 26 | 53.3% |
| 13 | @ Atlanta Falcons | Dec 6 | 66.3% |
| 14 | vs Tennessee Titans | Dec 13 | 88.1% |
| 15 | @ Minnesota Vikings | Dec 20 | 47.0% |
| 16 | vs New York Giants | Dec 28 | 72.6% |
| 17 | @ Chicago Bears | Jan 3 | 36.2% |
| 18 | @ Green Bay Packers | Jan 10 | 46.0% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Take Over the Lions →More on the Lions
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.