Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Chiefs (6-2) make the playoffs in 98.0% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, up 6.0 points from last week. They win the AFC West 58.9% of the time and the Super Bowl 7.6%, and finish with 12.0 wins on average. That's the 4th-best playoff outlook in the AFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
AFC West race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 12.0 | 58.9% | 98.0% | 7.6% |
| Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 11.9 | 40.3% | 95.4% | 1.6% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 8.0 | 0.8% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-8 | 1.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Chiefs remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Chiefs about 6.0 more wins in their last 9 games. Toughest: at Bills in Week 12 (38.9%). Most winnable: vs Cardinals in Week 11 (91.6%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Denver Broncos | Sep 14 | W 31-10 |
| 2 | vs Indianapolis Colts | Sep 20 | W 33-30 |
| 3 | @ Miami Dolphins | Sep 27 | W 24-10 |
| 4 | @ Las Vegas Raiders | Oct 4 | W 30-27 |
| 6 | vs Los Angeles Chargers | Oct 18 | W 22-6 |
| 7 | @ Seattle Seahawks | Oct 25 | L 3-20 |
| 8 | @ Denver Broncos | Nov 1 | L 24-28 |
| 9 | vs New York Jets | Nov 8 | W 35-12 |
| 10 | @ Atlanta Falcons | Nov 15 | 72.8% |
| 11 | vs Arizona Cardinals | Nov 22 | 91.6% |
| 12 | @ Buffalo Bills | Nov 26 | 38.9% |
| 13 | @ Los Angeles Rams | Dec 3 | 49.0% |
| 14 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | Dec 13 | 43.1% |
| 15 | vs New England Patriots | Dec 21 | 78.3% |
| 16 | vs San Francisco 49ers | Dec 27 | 52.9% |
| 17 | @ Los Angeles Chargers | Jan 3 | 87.0% |
| 18 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | Jan 10 | 82.7% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Take Over the Chiefs →More on the Chiefs
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.