Chicago Bears Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Bears (7-2) make the playoffs in 91.0% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, down 1.8 points from last week. They win the NFC North 34.7% of the time and the Super Bowl 7.0%, and finish with 11.8 wins on average. That's the 2nd-best playoff outlook in the NFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
NFC North race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 11.8 | 34.7% | 91.0% | 7.0% |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 11.4 | 32.9% | 85.8% | 4.5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 11.2 | 24.5% | 84.0% | 2.6% |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 10.4 | 7.9% | 60.4% | 1.5% |
Bears remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Bears about 4.8 more wins in their last 8 games. Toughest: at Bills in Week 15 (37.5%). Most winnable: vs Saints in Week 11 (83.4%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Carolina Panthers | Sep 13 | W 59-37 |
| 2 | vs Minnesota Vikings | Sep 20 | L 3-9 |
| 3 | vs Philadelphia Eagles | Sep 28 | W 27-7 |
| 4 | vs New York Jets | Oct 4 | W 23-12 |
| 5 | @ Green Bay Packers | Oct 11 | L 7-31 |
| 6 | @ Atlanta Falcons | Oct 18 | W 31-23 |
| 7 | vs New England Patriots | Oct 22 | W 30-24 |
| 8 | @ Seattle Seahawks | Nov 2 | W 34-17 |
| 9 | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Nov 8 | W 27-24 |
| 11 | vs New Orleans Saints | Nov 22 | 83.4% |
| 12 | @ Detroit Lions | Nov 26 | 46.7% |
| 13 | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | Dec 6 | 46.0% |
| 14 | @ Miami Dolphins | Dec 13 | 82.7% |
| 15 | @ Buffalo Bills | Dec 19 | 37.5% |
| 16 | vs Green Bay Packers | Dec 25 | 68.3% |
| 17 | vs Detroit Lions | Jan 3 | 63.8% |
| 18 | @ Minnesota Vikings | Jan 10 | 52.0% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Take Over the Bears →More on the Bears
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.