New Orleans Saints Playoff Chances 2026
Entering Week 10, the Saints (3-5) make the playoffs in 12.2% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, up 6.0 points from last week. They win the NFC South 12.1% of the time and the Super Bowl 0.1%, and finish with 6.5 wins on average. That's the 12th-best playoff outlook in the NFC.
Results through Monday, November 9 · 136 games left league-wide · updated every Tuesday.
NFC South race
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Win Div. | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 7.9 | 59.7% | 59.8% | 1.3% |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | 6.9 | 20.3% | 20.7% | 0.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 6.5 | 12.1% | 12.2% | 0.1% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 6.1 | 7.9% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
Saints remaining schedule and win chances
The model gives the Saints about 3.5 more wins in their last 9 games. Toughest: at Bears in Week 11 (16.6%). Most winnable: vs Cardinals in Week 16 (74.8%).
| Week | Opponent | Date | Result / win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Detroit Lions | Sep 13 | L 30-31 |
| 2 | @ Baltimore Ravens | Sep 20 | W 24-17 |
| 3 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | Sep 27 | L 27-35 |
| 4 | vs Atlanta Falcons | Oct 5 | L 24-45 |
| 5 | vs Minnesota Vikings | Oct 11 | L 13-23 |
| 6 | @ New York Giants | Oct 18 | W 34-27 |
| 7 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers (neutral site) | Oct 25 | L 10-16 |
| 9 | vs Cleveland Browns | Nov 8 | W 23-22 |
| 10 | vs Carolina Panthers | Nov 15 | 56.4% |
| 11 | @ Chicago Bears | Nov 22 | 16.6% |
| 12 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | Nov 29 | 16.8% |
| 13 | vs Green Bay Packers | Dec 6 | 38.2% |
| 14 | @ Carolina Panthers | Dec 13 | 36.8% |
| 15 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Dec 20 | 25.9% |
| 16 | vs Arizona Cardinals | Dec 27 | 74.8% |
| 17 | @ Atlanta Falcons | Jan 3 | 41.6% |
| 18 | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Jan 10 | 41.9% |
Win chances account for home field and current injuries.
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Take Over the Saints →More on the Saints
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Simulations for fun, not betting advice. BS Football is an independent simulation and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Football League.